testing 123

What a day in the market! First things first -- the action at the end of the day is a mixed picture for the short term. While the indexes ended well off their highs of the day they were moving up in the final 10 minutes. The profit taking at the end resulted in closing levels of 140 pts lower for the Dow, and 20 points lower for the Nasdaq as compared to their highs for the day. Afterhours in the Nasdaq was down slightly. I suspect their could be more profit taking if not Tuesday than Wednesday -- after the Fed. I may try to lighten my positions further on Tuesday to anticipate a market pullback, before resuming higher. I sold $40k of DIA and SPY slightly higher than the closing prices today. Although I did add $10k worth of telecommunications stocks.

I remind myself of the Kenny Rogers song - The Gambler...you never count your money when you're sitting at the table, there'll be time enough for counting, when the dealing's done! With that said....that is something I'm more inclined to follow when I am travelling. At the moment, the market is too accessible. Plus -- I'm still in serious learning mode. My shifting of positions last week paid off by placing more $$ in the Utilities and Telecommunications sector, which both continued to do strong today. With this upshot, both my aftertax and beforetax portfolios are positive since April 1st, 2002.

Before Tax - 5.7% increase
After Tax - 1.0% increase (Much of it due to dividends and int income - recent gains just pulled me out of the hole I was in)

Again my benchmark minimum is a safe money market. I would be up in the After Tax 1.5% approximately if I had done just that. So I'm still .5% away from the benchmark. In any case, with the $$$ on the table now...a move upward will easily pass that...a move down..well will take me back.

Here are my current investments: (No longer publishing dollar figures since this is posting on the net)

BT accts -- OAKLX (Closed to new investors -- through my 401k), ICTEX, FMIOX
AT Accts - RYMIX (Telecom), RYSIX (Electronics), RYUIX (Utilities), RYVYX (Nasdaq-100 equiv *2), RYTNX (S&P 500 *2)
WCPIX (Wireless), UMPIX (Midcap), ULPIX (S&P 500), GCEQX (Green Fund - will follow but underperform the indexes when up -- that is ok for me, this is part of my social investing agenda I'm starting to implement), CGMFX, ICTEX, Vanguard funds in Midcap and Smallcap.

I entered positions today of 500 -1000 shares in LU, NT, JDSU, SCMR, AGRA, CNXT, WIND. I view all of these individual company stocks as very speculative plays due to financial problems at each of them -- Wind River is probably the least speculative of all. Limited downside comparitively speaking...but lots of upside potential if Telecom and Tech continue to do well. I also have a basket of 20 stocks with various industries and sectors represented. Of the companies noted above - almost all of those stocks traded well above 50 if not well above 100 at some point in the past few years. Buying them between $1-$3 is relatively speaking a bargain -- as long as they don't go belly up. Also looking at AMCC, BRCM, NSM, NOK, and MOT. All higher priced stocks to be sure.

Of the mutual funds...some days some do better than others and vice versa...Small Caps better than Mid, Utilies better than Telecom, etc...
The only fund I am truly disappointed in is CGMFX. It started off very well...then has lagged the past couple of weeks. Granted...it may not start to do well until Dec - as that is when Small Caps really start to take off historically....so maybe I entered the position too early. But I only have the equivalent of $10k in it. I also am looking to shift my Vanguard funds toward Intl / European Indexes and Utilities...getting out of the Mid Caps which are lagging somewhat too.

The best gainer stock % wise is WIND - Wind River Systems.

I am still looking for a target of 9500-10k on the Dow by year end or early next year before I believe the market will go lower than it did this past year. With the Nasdaq 1500-1650, S&P 500 - 920-1000. The S&P 500 is close to the low end range...having a tough time around the 920 mark today. So I'm guessing that Tech will continue to outperform the broader market until year end. Although if the Dow moves past 9000 (Which would be a retest of the recent high) , the S&P 500 will surely cruise up to 950+. But targets are just that...the Seasonal Timing System I currently use just gets out around certain calendar points combined with price movements. Not sure if I will stick to that formula completely.

Summary - Still Int Term bullish, short term a little concerned about a pullback of some significance (200 pt drop in Dow?), Long term - bearish.